Highlights from the 4th Annual Predictions Report
DRI’s 4th Annual Predictions Report, developed by the Future Vision Committee, is now available to download from the Resource Library!
Here are a few of the featured predictions:
It seems inevitable that at some point an attack on critical national infrastructure will take place, although the perpetrators could come from a wider group of countries than normally assumed. One known threat comes from Ukraine where an active group has been assessed by intelligence agencies to pose a clear and present danger to critical infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe. This serves as a reminder that sophisticated threat actors continue to develop and deploy malware against notable targets such as critical infrastructure.
A large-scale state sponsored cyber-attack on the Critical National Infrastructure of a G8 country, initially attributed to Russia or China.
The causes of supply chain disruption are the same as any other disruption – accidental error, natural disasters, technology failure, or directly targeted action. For a major incident to occur, it is likely that either data breach or denial of access will be part of the attack, although it may also involve coordinated physical attacks on warehousing, production, or distribution processes. This highlights the importance of employing an in-depth cyber defense strategy coordinated with physical security considerations.
A coordinated cyber and physical disruption to the supply of telecom components made in Asia causes chaos in the global cell phone market.
Flooding and Exteme Weather
With increased attention to climate change and sustainability issues and particularly heavy flooding in 2018, it is inevitable that many assume a direct connection between climate change and the apparent increase in flooding incidents. A related issue is to consider the changing balance of where populations live. As most countries move from a rural economy to an urban one, more and more of the population lives in larger cities. When a hurricane or similar event hits a major city, the consequences are severe. Tokyo experienced many typhoons in 2018, and authorities have struggled to cope.
Major flooding on U.S. East Coast leads to severe Boston-Washington Corridor business disruption.
The major economic concern is the U.S. “trade war” with China and, to a lesser extent, with the EU. Should this escalate and continue for an extended period, a global economic downturn is likely. Countries will retaliate, leading to more protectionism and less free trade. It will not stop globalization, but it will hinder it in the short term. Predicted interest rate hikes in the U.S., EU, and UK also may affect investment flows and reduce investment in emerging economies. China will inevitably take up any opportunities this might create, but its own growth rate looks set to fall.
A U.S. financial downturn triggered by selling of over-valued tech stocks – combined with reduced growth in China and Brexit generated chaos in Europe – leads to a global financial crisis.
Learn more about how 2019 may develop — download the Predictions Report today!