Above-Normal 2020 Hurricane Season Predicted
2020’s hurricane season – which begins June 1 – may be a particularly active one, due to multiple climate factors coalescing in the Atlantic, according to the latest predictions by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Forecasting a range of 13 to 19 named storms (6 to 10 of which could become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph), the outlook is currently for a 60% chance of an above-normal season. In comparison, an average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes.
This is due to a combination of several factors this year. El Nino Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity.
In addition, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, paired with reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, and an enhanced West African monsoon all increase the likelihood of a stronger hurricane season.
In other words: now is the time to start preparing.