2021 Predictions: How Will International Relationships Evolve?
The DRI International Future Vision Committee has released its 6th Annual Predictions Report, looking ahead to 2021 and its impact on the resilience community. Click here to download the complete report free from the DRI Library, and read on for a prediction on how the global political climate is expected to change, particularly with a new U.S. presidential administration.
Prediction 3: A significant change in inter-governmental relationships
The change of U.S. President will undoubtedly improve the U.S. relationship with some of its traditional allies. However, they will still face threats that have escalated in recent years, such as state-sponsored cyber warfare, human rights abuses, and climate change. The U.S. will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, remain part of the World Health Organization, and likely resume negotiations on an improved nuclear proliferation treaty with Iran. Relations with the EU will improve, but relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia will be more strained as the U.S. adopts a more nuanced approach to the Middle East power groupings.
The real threat is the void left by U.S. foreign policy which allowed China to build economic alliances around the globe that are designed to position the Yuan to replace the U.S. dollar as a primary reserve currency. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership spans 15 countries and 2.2 billion people, or nearly 30% of the world’s population, with a combined GDP totals roughly $26 trillion and accounts for nearly 28% of global trade. The deal includes several of the region’s heaviest economic hitters aside from China, including Japan and South Korea. New Zealand and Australia also are partners, as are Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam in Southeast Asia.
Initially China, North Korea, and Iran may attempt to test the new U.S. President’s resolve by escalating tensions in Taiwan, South Korea, and the Sunni-controlled Middle East. China will continue to press militarily against India and consolidate its gains in the South China Sea. It will formalize its full integration of Hong-Kong’s laws and governance into that of mainland China. There will be continuing tension in the U.S.-China relationship, which could worsen under a new administration. This will be seen in overt struggles for advantage in economic, commercial, and technology fields.
Join us for the free online Resilience Excellence Summit Mar. 1-3 to continue the conversation. DRI Future Vision Committee Chair Lyndon Bird will be on hand with a panel on Mar. 2 discussing the findings of these reports and the shape of the coming year.