2021 Predictions: Will the Economy Really Recover?
The DRI International Future Vision Committee has released its 6th Annual Predictions Report, looking ahead to 2021 and its impact on the resilience community. Click here to download the complete report free from the DRI Library, and read on for a prediction on what COVID-19 vaccines might mean for economic recovery.
Prediction: A strong financial recovery, except in transportation and hospitality
Full economic recovery will only be possible when vaccines are widely available and the public is confident in their safety and efficacy. Until something approaching normality returns to everyday life, sectors such as transportation, entertainment, and hospitality will continue to be depressed with many business failures.
The demise of many small restaurants, bars, and cafes seems inevitable given the high rate of forced closure across much of the United States and Western Europe. Recovery for travel and aviation industries is likely to be slower than in other sectors and will probably result in permanent changes to the number of operators and carriers as the industry consolidates. This will lead to less demand for new aircraft and long-term damage to the viability of airplane manufacturers. Other sectors will recover fairly quickly in 2021 once vaccination programs commence at scale.
Covid-19 created weaknesses in the global economy that will be felt heavily in the first half of the year. Great crises often lead to lasting change, and this pandemic might not be an exception. Massive public spending by avowed fiscal conservatives (in the U.S., UK, and Germany) to support their domestic economies will set public expectations for future crises. It may change attitudes about increased levels of public spending and, hence, political priorities for a generation.
Join us for the free online Resilience Excellence Summit Mar. 1-3 to continue the conversation. DRI Future Vision Committee Chair Lyndon Bird will be on hand with a panel on Mar. 2 discussing the findings of these reports and the shape of the coming year.