2022 Predictions: How Far Will Shortages Spread?
The DRI International Future Vision Committee has released its 7th Annual Predictions Report, looking ahead to 2022 and its impact on the resilience community. Download the complete report free from the DRI Library, and read on for a prediction about the potential spread of labor and material shortages.
Prediction 8: Material and labor shortages spread from automotive to other sectors
The semi-conductor (chips) shortage is severe and is unlikely to be resolved quickly. It is a global problem given that two companies (one in Taiwan and one in South Korea) produce 70 percent of the world’s chips. Demand for chips has soared as vehicles become more automated to meet new regulatory requirements. With the majority of the remaining producers located in China or Japan, this is clearly not a resilient position for the U.S. or Europe. High dependency on Taiwan, given current Chinese rhetoric, would appear very risky.
The impact of supply chain disruptions on our daily lives has become a major challenge to many organizations. Ocean freight bookings, cargo space availability, container shortages, and lack of personnel at ports are problematic and will continue. The order cycle for goods between China and the U.S. takes about 155 days so we can expect the overall supply chain problems to take considerable time to subside.
Supply chain issues in the retail sector will remain significant in Europe across a range of commodities, mainly caused by Covid-induced problems. These are made worse in the U.K. by a shortage of licensed heavy goods vehicle drivers and some post Brexit custom disputes with the EU. However, it has been claimed that the U.K. needs an additional 100,000 drivers and there is no short-term way of getting them. Labor shortages remain high in the U.K. and the U.S. in a variety of sectors and there seems little possibility of either country easily filling the gaps.
Join us for DRI2022 in Las Vegas Feb. 13-16, 2022, where Future Vision Committee Chair Lyndon Bird will lead an interactive session where participants will have the opportunity to vote on a number of the key issues which have emerged from the reports. Bird will respond to voting as it happens, providing instant feedback and opinion. Please come to this session ready to participate, debate, and even argue if you wish. Challenging and controversial opinions are welcome.