Hurricane Season Preview: What’s in Store for 2022?
Colorado State University has released its early predictions for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. If the forecast is correct, at least four major hurricanes could make things difficult in the coming months.
CSU’s first extended range forecast of the year is predicting above-normal activity during the storm season. This is primarily due to two reasons: current weak La Niña weather patterns and the likely absence of an El Nino pattern, which would send high winds across the southern U.S. that can break up hurricanes; and higher than expected temperatures for seas in the Atlantic.
This forecast lines up with other early expectations. AccuWeather calls for between three and five major hurricanes out of six to eight hurricanes, among 16-20 named tropical storms. Private forecaster DTN expects 21 named storms, eight of which will be hurricane strength and four will be major hurricanes (Category 3 and up).
The 2022 forecast follows a predictable trend – if it bears out, it will be the seventh straight above-average hurricane season. Along with its early expectations, CSU offers the reminder to coastal residents (and resilience professionals): “It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”