The DRI International Future Vision Committee has released its 8th Annual Predictions Report, looking ahead to 2022 and its impact on the resilience community. Download the complete report free from the DRI Library, and read on for a prediction the race to find alternate energy in the wake of the Russian war on Ukraine.

Prediction 8: The drive to find alternate energy supplies will intensify, while power cuts hit many developed countries.

The Ukraine war has turbocharged the need to find alternative, renewable, and diversified energy sources. Traditional sources of oil and gas, such as the Middle East and Russia, are too volatile to rely on for guaranteed supply, so countries will develop their own industries or partner only with reliable allies.

In many countries, electricity generation is stretched by sheer capacity limitations, rather than fuel shortages. The need to maintain gas supplies (now defined by the EU as a transition fuel) to drive power stations will likely continue for much longer than many believe desirable. In addition, the high demand for electricity created by a switch from petroleum to electric vehicles will be difficult to manage. As electric vehicles become the dominant automobile technology, there may be different standards and regulations introduced in different markets slowing adoption and increasing costs. Additional demands on electricity grids will arise as households are incentivized to switch from gas-fueled central heating to alternate technologies.

Climate obligations will drive the switch to renewables (wind, solar, tidal) and to modern, safer forms of nuclear energy. Hydrogen is classified as an alternate fuel for automobiles as it has the ability to power fuel cells in zero-emission vehicles and has a fast filling time. It is also a candidate for use in domestic heating systems as it can run through existing pipework. To date, less consideration of hydrogen as a fuel has been reported than expected, primarily due to the focus on promoting electric vehicles. This apparent lack of publicity hides considerable research and development being undertaken globally.

Join us for DRI2023 in Austin, TX, Feb. 26 – Mar. 1, 2023, where Future Vision Committee Chair Lyndon Bird will lead an interactive session where participants will have the opportunity to vote on a number of the key issues which have emerged from the reports. Bird will respond to voting as it happens, providing instant feedback and opinion. Please come to this session ready to participate, debate, and even argue if you wish. Challenging and controversial opinions are welcome.