2023 Predictions: How Will the Russia-Ukraine War Change Global Security?
The DRI International Future Vision Committee has released its 8th Annual Predictions Report, looking ahead to 2022 and its impact on the resilience community. Download the complete report free from the DRI Library, and read on for how global security will adapt to recent instability.
Prediction 9: Global security concerns will multiply, thus changing many government positions and future commercial investment.
Although some countries and regions are always less stable than others, it does seem that we are reaching a tipping point. Western (mainly U.S.) hegemony, which has lasted over half a century, is being challenged. Driven mainly by Chinese expansion and now Russian military miscalculations, new economic, security, and military alliances are being forged.
Putin is unlikely to survive losses in Ukraine and may be tempted to risk tactical nuclear weapons, gambling that there will be no U.S. or NATO equivalent response. Should Putin fall, it is almost certain that Russia will become even more authoritarian under an alternate Soviet-style leadership. The chance of a move to a more open democratic society is very unlikely. Russia also has international support in several strategic parts of the world.
Russia has been the main supplier of arms to India since the Soviet era. Since 2000, it has sold some $35 billion worth of weapons, accounting for more than two-thirds of India’s arms procurement of $51 billion. Saudi Arabia is indirectly helping Russia by its manipulation of OPEC top oil production levels and prices. Turkey is pushing its borders into Northern Syria.
The return of Netanyahu to power in Israel also is likely to further increase tensions, as Israel will not accept Iranian nuclear development. An attack to neutralize all nuclear facilities in Iran is almost inevitable unless the current ruling powers in Iran are overthrown. This is unlikely but not impossible, as women and many men protest oppression and deprivation and could foment civil war. This, however, will not lead to peace or stability – simply more turbulence.
Join us for DRI2023 in Austin, TX, Feb. 26 – Mar. 1, 2023, where Future Vision Committee Chair Lyndon Bird will lead an interactive session where participants will have the opportunity to vote on a number of the key issues which have emerged from the reports. Bird will respond to voting as it happens, providing instant feedback and opinion. Please come to this session ready to participate, debate, and even argue if you wish. Challenging and controversial opinions are welcome.